A snowstorm forecasted to hit Reno on Election Day might help decide which candidates inch past their competition. Bottom line: the election outcome is far from determined. Voting trends in the state are difficult to track since only a few counties publish early voting numbers. So far Democrats hold the edge, but only ever so slightly. Republicans aren’t seeing the same numbers as their 2014 red wave in the state. At this point Democrats only hold a 1% lead, according to The Nevada Independent. At this point in 2018, registered Democrats voting early outnumbered registered Republicans by nearly 3.7%. A higher percentage of rural in-person voting is outpacing the urban share of totals. “They’re taking this huge gamble on Election Day that they’re all going to show up at the polls to drop off early ballots or vote in person.”Įarly midterm voting in Nevada is showing warning signs for Democrats. “They’re just going to show up at a different time in the election,” he said.
Sam Almy, an election analyst in Arizona told the New York Times that Republicans will most likely end up voting. Independent early voter turnout is roughly comparable to 2018. This year they are sitting at similar levels while Republican early turnout numbers are roughly 13 points lower, dropping from 45% to 33%. When you make those steps easier, everyone benefits, but especially those people who had a harder time in the first place.”Īt this point in the 2018 midterm elections, 39% of registered Democrats in Arizona had cast their ballots. “That’s because many steps of the voting process are disproportionately difficult for young people. “It’s often the case that when you make voting easier, young people turn out more, Charlotte Hill, director of the Democracy Policy Initiative at UC-Berkeley told CNN. Young voters ages 18 to 21 make up a greater share of the total number of early voters so far, although they still account for no more than 3% of the current tally. The increase in turnout may be due to Pennsylvania’s no-excuse voting by mail law which was introduced in the state in 2020. CNN reported that 70% of all early voting in the Keystone state comes from voters registered with the Democratic Party. Registered Democrats who have taken advantage of absentee balloting or early in-person voting in the Keystone state are similar to the numbers who voted early two years ago. The relatively new changes in mass voting behavior leaves the early voting turnout numbers up for interpretation. Of course, voters don’t typically turnout in midterm elections at the same rate as they do in presidential election years. Early voting in 2020 heavily favored Democrats, while in-person voting helped Republicans.īut GOP registered voters are turning out in higher numbers than expected so far in states like Nevada and Florida, while the number of registered Democrats who have already voted in Arizona and Pennsylvania are similar to the numbers that helped President Joe Biden win those states two years ago. Democrats and Republicans both have reason to hope and despair as they try to read the tea leaves for their candidates based on who is showing up to vote.įar more Americans vote early or by mail than used to, and more Democrats take advantage of early voting than Republicans according to historic trends. Senate will come down to just a few seats in key battleground states, so parties are pushing their voters to show up.
Record breaking numbers of voters are casting their ballots early in this year’s midterm elections.
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